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Tourism forecasts for Australia 2025 to 2030
TRA produces the official tourism forecasts for Australia. This year, the report covers:
- international forecasts at the national level and for 20 source markets, 4 region groupings and 6 purposes of travel
- domestic forecasts at the national level and for each state and territory by purpose of travel.
The forecasts cover the current year and 5-year forward period from 2025 to 2030, on a calendar year basis. Forecast data are available to download from this page.
The report presents the forecast outlook. This includes insights regarding the drivers and implications of the projected path forward for the tourism sector and analysis of the forecast data.
For the first time the report also discusses alternate optimistic and pessimistic scenarios over the forecast period. These highlight the range of potential outcomes around the core or central case forecasts in an uncertain environment, including the key factors that could result in those higher or lower outcomes.
Visitor economy outlook
The report forecasts a positive outlook for the visitor economy despite various global and domestic uncertainties. Total visitor spend in Australia is forecast to continue rising and reach approximately $233 billion by 2030.
We predict international and domestic tourism will continue to grow over the next 5 years. By 2030, we expect:
- international visitor arrivals to Australia to reach 10.9 million
- international visitor spend in Australia to reach $46 billion
- domestic overnight trips to surpass 123 million and domestic day trips to exceed 313 million
- domestic tourism spend to reach $187 billion, with $130 billion spent on overnight trips and a further $57 billion spent on day trips.
Our forecasting method
TRA produces forecasts using a hybrid, evidence-based approach. This method combines data-based analysis and modelling with expert judgement. Insights from the Tourism Forecasting Expert Panel are a critical component of TRA’s forecasting process. The Panel:
- offers long-standing support for TRA’s forecasting work
- is a source of broad-based, respected and constructive intelligence that informs the tourism forecasts
- comprises academics, industry and government specialists, and representatives from the state and territory tourism organisations
- provides input to the forecasting work through survey responses, high-level discussions, and feedback on draft forecast data.
