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Tourism forecasts for Australia 2023 to 2028

TRA produces tourism forecasts for Australia. This year, we produced:

  • international forecasts at the national level and for many markets and purposes of travel
  • domestic forecasts at the national level and for each state and territory. 

The forecasts cover the 5-year forward period, 2023 to 2028, on a calendar year basis. Forecast data are available to download at the bottom of this page.

The report contains a written summary and analysis of the forecast data. It presents an overview of the outlook and discusses the drivers and implications of the projected path forward for the tourism sector. It also notes some key risks to the forecasts.

Download the report

Visitor economy outlook

The report forecasts a positive outlook for the visitor economy. In the next 5 years, we predict both international and domestic tourism will continue to grow. We expect:

  • international travel to Australia will exceed its pre-pandemic level in 2025 
  • international spend in Australia will exceed its pre-pandemic level in 2024
  • domestic travel will stabilise in 2023, after strong growth in 2022
  • domestic tourism spend, which already exceeds its pre-pandemic level, will continue to rise
  • domestic tourism nights in all states and territories will recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Our forecasting method

TRA produces forecasts using a hybrid, evidence-based approach. This method combines data-based analysis and modelling with expert judgement. Insights from the Tourism Forecasting Expert Panel are a critical component of TRA’s forecasting process. The Panel:

  • offers long-standing support for TRA’s forecasting work
  • is a source of broad-based, respected and constructive intelligence that informs the tourism forecasts
  • comprises academics, industry and government specialists, and representatives from the state and territory tourism organisations
  • provided input to this year’s forecasting work through survey responses, high-level discussions, and feedback on draft forecast data.

Contact TRA