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Domestic tourism forecasts

Domestic tourism forecasts summarise the outlook for domestic tourism in Australia. The industry is expected to recover from the downturn of the past 2 years.

This report includes forecasts for the 5-year period 2021-22 to 2025-26, covering:

  • the national visitor economy (domestic visitor nights, trips and spend)
  • purpose of travel
  • state and territory domestic tourism nights.

It also explains:

  • driving factors
  • differences across states and territories
  • methodology, assumptions and risks.

We produce these forecasts using an evidence-based approach, which combines quantitative modelling and expert analysis.

International tourism forecasts

These models provide forecasts based on aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality, as well as significant events affecting source markets. Estimates are made over a ten-year future timeframe and are provided for individual states and territories as well as nationally.

As part of the forecasting process, Tourism Research Australia established the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel (the Panel) comprising experts from industry and government. Its key purpose is to review and provide feedback on the draft tourism forecasts before results are finalised.

Important note on the forecasts

TRA produced these forecasts in late 2019. They:

  • pre-date the disruption to international tourism caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • must be used with caution
  • should be considered alongside TRA’s tourism recovery scenarios based on September 2020 research.

Australia is expected to reopen to international visitors during 2022. However, there are uncertainties about how this will affect tourism over the short term. These include:

  • a risk of further outbreaks
  • travellers’ concerns around safety and health
  • availability of long-haul international flights.

Due to this, we will publish the next round of international forecasts in late 2022.

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