Domestic tourism forecasts summarise the outlook for domestic tourism in Australia. The industry is expected to recover from the downturn of the past 2 years.
This report includes forecasts for the 5-year period 2021-22 to 2025-26, covering:
It also explains:
We produce these forecasts using an evidence-based approach, which combines quantitative modelling and expert analysis.
Spreadsheets contain the raw data. National figures are provided for financial and calendar years.
These models provide forecasts based on aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality, as well as significant events affecting source markets. Estimates are made over a ten-year future timeframe and are provided for individual states and territories as well as nationally.
As part of the forecasting process, Tourism Research Australia established the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel (the Panel) comprising experts from industry and government. Its key purpose is to review and provide feedback on the draft tourism forecasts before results are finalised.
TRA produced these forecasts in late 2019. They:
Australia is expected to reopen to international visitors during 2022. However, there are uncertainties about how this will affect tourism over the short term. These include:
Due to this, we will publish the next round of international forecasts in late 2022.