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This is the first time we have produced this report since the start of the pandemic. TRA present domestic forecasts at the national level and for each state and territory. We also present international forecasts at the national level and for selected markets and purposes of travel.

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Domestic and international forecasts

TRA forecast total visitor expenditure to surpass pre-pandemic levels this year and total $227.7 billion by 2027. This includes:

  • domestic overnight trip and day trip expenditure moving higher than their pre-pandemic peaks this year. They are projected to reach $137.9 billion and $41.1 billion respectively by 2027
  • international visitor expenditure exceeding pre-pandemic levels in 2024. We forecast this to increase to $48.8 billion by 2027.

We expect the recovery of international tourism to take some time. It is likely to be uneven across markets and purpose of travel. Overall, we forecast visitor arrivals to move higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2025 and total 11.0 million by 2027. International spend will return to pre-pandemic levels earlier, in 2024.

The turnaround for domestic travel is progressing more quickly. Overnight and day trip expenditure this year are already above pre-pandemic levels. We forecast the number of visitor nights to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

By 2027, there are forecast to be:

  • 465.8 million domestic visitor nights (up 11% on 2019)
  • 126.2 million domestic overnight trips (up 7% on 2019)
  • 244.4 million domestic day trips (down 2% on 2019).

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Spreadsheets contain the raw data. National, state and territory figures are provided for calendar years.

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