Australian Government - TRA

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Tourism Research Australia

Forecast methodology

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Tourism forecasting plays an important role in informing policy, marketing, investment, and planning decisions for the Australian tourism industry.

Tourism Research Australia (TRA) is charged with providing official long-term forecasts for Australia’s international, domestic and outbound tourism sectors, usually in April and October. The forecasts are produced using the following iterative process:

  • First iteration: The TRA Forecasting Unit estimates tourist activity and expenditure using a combination of econometric and time series models. These models provide forecasts based on global and domestic economic conditions, aviation capacity and airfares (to, from and within Australia), domestic accommodation capacity and room rates, seasonality, as well as significant events affecting source markets.
  • Second iteration: TRA conducts an industry sentiment survey and meets with a wide range of key industry stakeholders through an extensive business liaison process; the objective of which is to gain insights relating to influential factors for the coming year.
  • Final iteration: TRA presents the draft tourism forecasts to the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel (the Panel), which replaces the former Tourism Forecasting Committee, for its consideration and feedback. The Panel comprises the following experts from industry and government.
  • Janice Wykes (Chair) Assistant General Manager, Tourism Research Australia
    Ivan Colhoun   Chief Economist, Markets, National Australia Bank
    Russell Goss Research Director, Tourism and Transport Forum
    Daniel Gschwind Chief Executive, Queensland Tourism Industry Council
    Adele Labine-Romain Executive General Manager (Strategy and Research), Tourism Australia
    David Sheldon Chairman, Australian Regional Tourism Network
    Peter Shelley Managing Director, Australian Tourism Export Council
    Dr. Tony Webber Managing Director, Webber Quantitative Consulting PTY LTD