These models provide forecasts based on aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality, as well as significant events affecting source markets. Estimates are made over a ten-year future timeframe and are provided for individual states and territories as well as nationally.

As part of the forecasting process, Tourism Research Australia established the Tourism Forecasting Reference Panel (the Panel) comprising experts from industry and government. Its key purpose is to review and provide feedback on the draft tourism forecasts before results are finalised.

Important note on the forecasts

TRA produced these forecasts in late 2019. They:

  • pre-date the disruption to international tourism caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • must be used with caution
  • should be considered alongside TRA’s Tourism Recovery Scenarios based on September 2020 research.

Australia is expected to reopen to international visitors during 2022. However, there are uncertainties about how this will affect tourism over the short term. These include:

  • a risk of further outbreaks
  • travellers’ concerns around safety and health
  • availability of long-haul international flights.

Due to this, we will publish the next round of international forecasts in late 2022.

State and Territory Data

Excel 1.2MB